Ukraine Russia war

Speaking at an event of the German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP) think tank in Berlin on Wednesday, BND chief Bruno Kahl said he expected Moscow to further step up its hybrid warfare.

"The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause."

"At the same time, the increasing ramp up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes one possible option for the Kremlin."

Under Article 5, if a NATO member comes under attack, the other members of the alliance are obliged to help it respond. The Guardian

Bruno Kahl, president of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND)

Turkey Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar comments the US President Joe Biden's administration's decision (Gazprombank sanctions) to take such a decision about 1.5 months before he hands over the authority to the new US President-elect:

"If such an exemption is not granted to Turkey, this directly affects Turkey. Russia is not a target here, but Turkey is a direct target." and "The bad thing is that these embargoes can be imposed overnight and may take a little longer to lift." AA

The Guardian, about the damage to optic cables:

"No one believes that the cables were accidentally damaged. I also don’t want to believe that the ships’ anchors caused the damage by accident,” the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said in Brussels on Tuesday. “We have to assume, without certain information, that the damage is caused by sabotage." The Guardian

Source: TeleGeography

Other like DW ask: Does the trail lead to China? But this sounds completely ridiculous. DW

The Guardian, about Atacms missiles:

"With Trump’s inauguration in January, the move could be a way to strengthen Ukraine’s hand militarily before it is forced into peace talks. It may also have a psychological impact, raising morale in Ukraine during a tough period." The Guardian

Lockheed Martin. Note: ellipsoidal distances

Radoslav Ganev, "Good Bulgaria for people"

For diplomatic peace talks to be successful next year, Russian president Vladimir Putin should be guaranteed not to be arrested on the territory of a country which is state party to the Rome Statute of the ICC (International Criminal Court). At the moment, 124 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. ICC

Arrest Warrants, ICC

Kiel institute, which countries help Ukraine and how:

The figure below shows total bilateral commitments - by type of assistance (billion Euros) from January 24, 2022, to January 15, 2023. Kiel Institute

The next figure below shows total bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine in percent of donor country GDP.

Read full pdf: paper

A senior adviser to President-elect Donald Trump, Bryan Lanza:

“When Zelensky says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we've got news for President Zelensky: Crimea is gone…”

"And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you're on your own…"

"The reality on the ground is [that] the European nation states and President Biden did not give Ukraine the ability and the arms to win this war at the very beginning and failed to lift the restrictions for Ukraine to win…" BBC

Mr. Lanza helped me to correct my previous sentence because I mistakenly used “only beginning”. But it is grammatically correct if we want to say: The far-right politicians have disrupted our lives in ways we could never have imagined, but it is only beginning and there will be many challenges ahead of us.

Radoslav Ganev, "Good Bulgaria for people"

If the future president of USA Donald Trump fixes half of the problems between Russia and Ukraine, and finds stable solution, I will be really content. Glitches began during 2014, when Germany and France were too engaged with the future of NS-2 (North stream two) so they didn’t use enough diplomatic pressure at the very beginning against separatism in Ukraine and the conflict have been escalating since than.

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky:

“When a lot of countries began to support the victory plan, you see what’s going on now in media – they said that Ukraine wanted a lot of missiles, like Tomahawks, etc. But it was confidential information – between Ukraine and the White House. How to understand these messages? So, it means between partners – there are no any confidential things.” Reuters

Комсомольская правда:

"А вот перед Турцией стоят два стула. И, что для России крайне неудобно, наш восточный партнер пытается усидеть сразу на обоих: одной ногой в БРИКС, другой - в НАТО. Турция и Украине охотно продает оружие."
PDF: kp.ru

"There are two chairs in front of Turkey. And, which is extremely inconvenient for Russia, our eastern partner is trying to sit on both at once: with one foot in BRICS and the other in NATO. Turkey willingly sells arms to Ukraine as well."
PDF: kp.ru

Rose Gottemoeller, BBC:

"I cannot sugarcoat these warnings. Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with echoes of his threat to withdraw from NATO in everyone’s ears. I do not believe that NATO must fall apart. Europe will need to step forward to lead. If Harris wins, NATO will no doubt be in good Washington hands. She will be ready to continue working with NATO and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but she will not back off on pressure on Europe." BBC

Kamala Harris:

“Some in my country would pressure Ukraine to cede territory to negotiate a peace with Putin."

"These proposals are the same as those of Putin, and let us be clear, they are not proposals for peace, instead, they are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable.”
PDF: The Guardian

Donald Trump:

“Any deal – the worst deal – would’ve been better than what we have now."

"If they made a bad deal, it would’ve been much better. They would’ve given up a little bit and everybody would be living and every building would be built and every tower would be aging for another 2,000 years … What deal can we make? It’s demolished. The people are dead. The country is in rubble.”
PDF: The Guardian

The New York Times:

U.S. Intelligence Stresses Risks in Allowing Long-Range Strikes by Ukraine

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said.
PDF: The New York Times

Marshall Fund event, Reflections on a Challenging Decade: A Farewell Conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:

"The paradox is that the more weapons for Ukraine we are able to deliver, the more likely it is that we can reach a peace and end to the war."

Transcript

Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi:

"We are not neutral, ... India stands with Ukraine."

"The second aspect of our role has been to stay away from the war, but this never meant that we were just an indifferent bystander … we were never neutral. We had a side right from the first day and our side is of peace. This is our conviction and our commitment that we respect the support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity"
PDF: Anadolu Agency

Mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko:

"I don't fear Trump, a referendum will be needed to sanction peace"

"Whatever move he takes; our president risks political suicide. Let's be clear that we have to win the war, but the situation is getting more and more complicated, it depends on the help that comes from the allies, and it would be a nightmare if we have to fight for two more years."
PDF: Corriere Della Serra

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky:

"Giving up Ukrainian territories is a very, very difficult question"

In an interview with Le Monde, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discusses the possible outcome of the war and calls on China to put pressure on Russia to open the way to negotiations.
PDF: Le Monde

It is hardly possible a conflict that has been brewing since 2014, could be resolved in 24 hours. But at the moment the only several simple steps to reduce the tension come from China, whose three most important points are: not to use weapons of mass destruction, not to attack peaceful nuclear power plants and to avoid attacks against civilians as well as to prevent any kind of provocations.

Europeans want a peaceful Europe, but if we satisfy all of Russia's territorial ambitions, this precedent is likely to unleash many new conflicts in Europe and all around the world.

Today, some politicians with self-confidence define themselves as peacemakers*, but in practice they stimulate Russian militarism even more, because somebody has to pay for the destruction in Ukraine. As long as the blocked Russian assets in the EU and the USA exceed 500 billions, the problem remains open.

Les Européens veulent une Europe pacifique, mais si nous satisfaisons toutes les ambitions territoriales de la Russie, ce précédent risque de déclencher de nombreux nouveaux conflits en Europe et dans le monde entier.

Aujourd'hui, certains politiciens sûrs d'eux se définissent comme des pacificateurs*, mais dans la pratique, ils stimulent encore plus le militarisme russe, car quelqu'un doit payer pour les destructions en Ukraine. Tant que les avoirs russes bloqués dans l'UE et aux États-Unis dépassent 500 milliards, le problème reste ouvert.

Европейците искат мирна Европа, но ако задоволим всички териториални амбиции на Русия, този прецедент вероятно ще отприщи много нови конфликти в Европа и по света.

Днес някои политици със самочувствие се определят като миротворци*, но на практика стимулират още повече руския милитаризъм, защото някой трябва да плати за разрушенията в Украйна. Докато блокираните руски активи в ЕС и САЩ надхвърлят 500 милиарда, проблемът остава отворен.

* Today, already the Russian media use the words of fast peacemakers like Orban out of context and claim that the EU will have to pay the price for the war in Ukraine:„The latest news about the situation in and around Ukraine on 28 July 2024: the European Union, according to Orban, will have to pay for the Ukrainian adventure, and quoting Zelensky in Ukraine has been banned“... read pdf